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Volume 24 – Commodities (Grains & Softs)

This volume surveys six major commodities. We have used spot prices to avoid all the problems inherent in attempting to link futures prices.

Cocoa, 1927
Coffee, 1890
Cotton, 1875
Corn, 1875
Soybeans, 1929
Wheat, 1875

Nominal Spot Price and Inflation-Adjusted

There are two charts for each commodity (mixed frequencies). The first chart compares the nominal spot price with the inflation-adjusted price on a landscape, comparable log scaled chart. After adjusting for inflation, these charts take on an entirely different look.

This chart of coffee shows that the explosive rally in the early 1990s came off an all-time low price on the inflation adjusted chart. The upper line is the nominal spot price and the lower line is the inflation-adjusted price. This is a 4kb thumbnail! It would take over sixty full SVGA screens to show the detail on one Topline chart. The real charts look much better than these thumbnails.

Coppock Curve

The second chart shows the history of the commodity since 1960 along with its Coppock Curve (based on monthly averages).

The 1992 bottom in Coffee came off a double bullish divergence in the Coppock Curve. The ensuing rally was the strongest on the chart. This is a 4kb thumbnail! It would take over sixty full SVGA screens to show the detail on one Topline chart. The real charts look much better than these thumbnails.

This volume was introduced in the December 1996 edition.

Other examples of Coppock Curves can be seen at:

Volume 16 – Coppock Curves

Volume 23 – World CPIs

Volume 25 – Commodities (Metals)

 

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Last modified: April 06, 2005